World Cup Group Predictions 2026: Every Group Rated by the Model

The 2026 World Cup group stage is the largest in tournament history. Forty-eight teams, twelve groups, seventy-two matches. The top two from each group advance automatically, while the eight best third-placed teams also progress, ranked by points, then goal difference, then goals scored. In total, 32 of the 48 teams reach the Round of 32.

This format means finishing third is not necessarily fatal. A team can exit even with four points if they are unlucky with group composition and results elsewhere. Conversely, a team with three points can survive if third-placed teams from tougher groups perform poorly. Group context and goal difference will matter from the first whistle.

This article breaks down every 2026 World Cup group, showing each team’s qualification probability, group win chance, model ranking and key market disagreement.

The model ratings and qualification probabilities below come from a tournament simulation run thousands of times across the full bracket. All percentages reflect pre-tournament structural ratings; they do not account for squad news or injuries. The full predictions table ranks all 48 teams by win probability and explains the model inputs in more detail.

Quick takeaways

• Best group-stage favourite: Spain, with a 74.1% chance of winning Group H.
• Hardest groups: Group C and Group I.
• Most open group: Group D, where all four teams have a realistic route to qualification.
• Biggest model-market disagreements: Australia, Algeria, Norway, Brazil and Croatia.

Group A

Mexico · South Korea · Czech Republic · South Africa

Mexico are strong favourites to top this group and progress. This will be their 18th World Cup and third time co-hosting the tournament, following 1970 and 1986, and those home tournaments remain their best performances: quarter-finals on both occasions. The model gives them a 95.4% qualification probability and a 63.8% chance of winning the group outright.

South Korea are the model's second-ranked team in the group and reach their 11th consecutive World Cup. At 82.6%, they are strong contenders to qualify as runners-up. Czech Republic return to the tournament for the first time since 2006, they needed a penalty shootout to beat Denmark in the European play-offs, and South Africa ended a 16-year absence with a 3-0 win over Rwanda on the final day of qualifying. Both face a significant step up in quality.

View Group A predictions and fixtures →

Group B

Switzerland · Canada · Qatar · Bosnia & Herzegovina

The model identifies Group B as one of the clearest in the draw, with Switzerland and Canada both rated as strong favourites to progress. Switzerland, led by experienced captain Granit Xhaka, confirmed their sixth successive World Cup appearance after an unbeaten qualifying campaign and are the model's clear group favourite at 93.9%. Canada host the tournament for the first time and will compete at back-to-back World Cups, having previously appeared in 1986 and 2022. Led by captain and Bayern Munich left-back Alphonso Davies, Canada will be keen to deliver a strong performance in front of their own fans, and at 86.9% the model gives them an excellent chance of doing so.

Qatar return as the 2022 hosts after exiting at the group stage last time, and at 51.2% the model gives them a genuine chance of securing one of the eight best third-placed spots. Bosnia & Herzegovina upset Italy on penalties in the European play-offs to earn only their second World Cup appearance and sit at 35.6%, low, but not negligible. The third-place tiebreaker means neither side can be written off entirely, and a strong start from either could keep them in contention deep into the group stage

View Group B predictions and fixtures →

Group C

Morocco · Brazil · Scotland · Haiti

Group C is the model's joint-hardest group on paper and one of the headline draws of the tournament. Morocco (#4) and Brazil (#9) share the same pool, and with qualification probabilities of 96.6% and 92.9% respectively, both are expected to progress. The real stakes in this group are about finishing position; the team that finishes second likely faces a tougher R32 opponent, and neither side will want to cede top spot.

Morocco are the model's group favourites, rated above Brazil on the strength of their recent form. The Atlas Lions were the first African nation to reach a World Cup semi-final, at Qatar 2022, and the first team from their confederation to qualify for 2026. Brazil bring the strongest historical record in world football: 23 appearances, five titles and the distinction of being the only nation to feature at every edition. However, their recent weighted form is one of the weakest among the top-ten teams, and finishing 5th of the 6 South American qualifiers in CONMEBOL underlines that concern. New coach Carlo Ancelotti secured qualification with a 1-0 win over Paraguay, though the data suggests the market, which ranks Brazil #4, may be overweighting reputation.

Scotland return to the World Cup for the first time since 1998, sealing qualification with two goals in added time against Denmark at Hampden Park. Haiti return after a 52-year absence. Scotland at 50.7% have a realistic shot at a third-placed qualifying berth if results go their way, but realistically both will be competing to make the group stage as competitive as possible.

View Group C predictions and fixtures →

Group D

USA · Australia · Turkey · Paraguay

Group D is one of the most competitive groups in the draw at the top end. The USA are co-hosts, playing their 12th World Cup and their second tournament on home soil after 1994. Their best World Cup finish remains a semi-final appearance in 1930, but 2026 brings a very different kind of opportunity: a home tournament, a growing domestic audience and an experienced manager in Mauricio Pochettino. Although Pochettino has not managed at a World Cup before, his appointment gives the USA a high-profile coach with major club experience, and his early spell has already brought a mix of encouraging performances. The model rates the USA as group favourites at 86.0%, with Australia close behind.

Australia are the model's biggest positive divergence from market pricing: rated #18 by the model but #33 by the bookmakers, a fifteen-place gap. They qualified with a comeback win over Saudi Arabia and will compete at a sixth successive World Cup. At 78.5%, the model considers them strong favourites to progress. Turkey return to the tournament for the first time since 2002, when they finished third, having come through the European play-offs with wins over Romania and Kosovo. At 69.6%, they are also firmly in contention. Paraguay return for the first time since 2010 and at 40.4% are the clear outsiders, though the third-place route means they cannot be entirely discounted.

View Group D predictions and fixtures →

Group E

Germany · Ecuador · Ivory Coast · Curaçao

Germany are heavy group favourites and the model's sixth-ranked team overall. They qualified with a 6-0 win over Slovakia to secure their 19th consecutive World Cup appearance, a remarkable streak stretching back to 1954. Coach Julian Nagelsmann will be looking to arrest back-to-back group-stage exits in 2018 and 2022.

Ecuador and Ivory Coast battle for the second spot. Ecuador sealed qualification with a draw against Peru, their fifth World Cup this century. Ivory Coast return for the first time since 2014 after topping their African qualifying group. Curaçao make their first World Cup appearance as the smallest country by population ever to qualify for the tournament, a nation of roughly 156,000 people, about the size of Oxford in the UK. With a squad drawn largely from the Dutch diaspora, they are given a 21.2% qualification probability.

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Group F

Netherlands · Japan · Tunisia · Sweden

The Netherlands are narrow model favourites in a genuinely competitive group. Three-time World Cup finalists (1974, 1978, 2010), they have qualified for their 12th tournament with an unbeaten run under Ronald Koeman. However, their qualification probability of 92.4% reflects the model's confidence in them progressing, the model does not consider them a certainty to progress.

Japan are the model's second team in the group and present a credible threat to the Dutch. The Samurai Blue sealed their eighth consecutive World Cup with three games to spare in Asian qualifying and enter the tournament in strong form. Sweden return after an eight-year absence, ending their drought through the European play-offs with Viktor Gyökeres' late winner over Poland. Despite the individual quality in their squad, the model rates them significantly below their market price (model #35, market #20).

View Group F predictions and fixtures →

Group G

Belgium · Iran · Egypt · New Zealand

Belgium are the group favourites with a 91.9% qualification probability, though the battle for second place is genuinely open. The Red Devils qualified in style, winning their final qualifier 7-0 against Liechtenstein to claim top spot in their UEFA group. Iran and Egypt both have plausible routes to the second qualification spot.

Iran are the model's biggest divergence in this group, rated #24 by the model but #36 by the market (a twelve-place gap). They qualified for a fourth successive World Cup in dramatic fashion and are placed in a group where second place is genuinely achievable. Egypt return after missing Qatar 2022, qualifying with Mohamed Salah in influential form. New Zealand qualify for their third World Cup and are given a 17.2% probability of advancing. Realistically, their first target is to make the group competitive.

View Group G predictions and fixtures →

Group H

Spain · Uruguay · Saudi Arabia · Cape Verde

Spain are the tournament's overall favourites and the dominant force in this group. The model gives La Roja a 74.1% group win probability, the highest of any team across all twelve groups, and a 97.4% chance of qualifying, and it is easy to see why. This is Spain's 17th World Cup and their 13th consecutive qualification, while they arrive as reigning European champions, 2010 World Cup winners and one of the most successful European national teams of the 21st century. Under Luis de la Fuente, Spain look like a side with both pedigree and momentum, making them the clear benchmark in Group H.

Uruguay are the strong favourites to take the second spot at 87.9%, carrying genuine tournament pedigree (15 appearances, two World Cup titles in 1930 and 1950), though their recent form sits below their historical level. The model rates them at #21 while the market has them at #14, suggesting their reputation may be inflating the price somewhat.

Saudi Arabia famously upset Argentina at Qatar 2022 but are significantly weaker on the model's assessment. Cape Verde make their first World Cup appearance, a landmark moment for a nation of 525,000 people that topped their African qualifying group ahead of Cameroon. Both Saudi Arabia (42.2%) and Cape Verde (34.2%) have a realistic shot at a third-placed qualifying berth, making the battle for third in this group more competitive than the top two spots suggest

View Group H predictions and fixtures →

Group I

France · Senegal · Norway · Iraq

Group I is joint-hardest in the draw alongside Group C, not because teams are likely to be eliminated against the odds, but because two genuinely strong sides - France (#2) and Senegal (#11) - share the same pool. France are heavy favourites to top the group at 96.4%, and Senegal at 83.7% are strong favourites to join them. The real pressure falls on Norway and Iraq, who are effectively competing for a third-placed qualifying berth.

Norway are the most notable market pricing anomaly in the group. The bookmakers have them at #9 overall, second in the group behind France, driven largely by the presence of Erling Haaland. The model, which does not account for individual players, rates them #25 overall and third in this group, reflecting that Norway are back at the World Cup for the first time since 1998, have only four tournament appearances in history, and carry limited knockout pedigree. Their 58.2% qualification probability reflects their reliance on the third-place route rather than a realistic chance of finishing in the top two. Iraq return to the World Cup for the first time since 1986 after beating Bolivia in the play-off final, and at 26.6% face a steep task to progress.

View Group I predictions and fixtures →

Group J

Argentina · Algeria · Austria · Jordan

Argentina are the defending champions and model's third-ranked team overall, giving them a 96.7% qualification probability. They secured their CONMEBOL spot earliest of any South American nation and will be looking to defend the title Lionel Messi lifted in Qatar.

Below Argentina, the second spot is a straight fight between two evenly matched teams. Algeria and Austria are almost level on qualification probability (74.9% vs 73.1%), with the model giving neither a meaningful edge. Algeria return to the World Cup for the first time since 2014 after a dominant qualification campaign, winning seven and drawing one of their first nine games. The model rates them at #19 but the market has them at #34, a fifteen-place gap that makes them the second-biggest value signal in the tournament.

Austria qualified from a play-off draw against Bosnia but carry solid recent form. Jordan make their first World Cup appearance and at 24.8% are realistic contenders for a third-placed qualifying berth if the two favourites above them slip up.

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Group K

Portugal · Colombia · Uzbekistan · DR Congo

Portugal are the model's seventh-ranked team and group favourites. They finished their UEFA qualifying campaign with an emphatic 9-1 win over Armenia to reach their ninth World Cup. Colombia are back after missing Qatar 2022, James Rodríguez led them to a 3-0 win over Bolivia to seal qualification, and the market has them at #10, above what the model supports (#16).

Uzbekistan reach their first World Cup, a historic moment for the Central Asian nation after seven unsuccessful attempts since gaining FIFA membership in 1994. Manchester City's Abdukodir Khusanov is their best-known player. DR Congo qualified via a dramatic extra-time goal against Jamaica in the Play-Off Tournament final, their first appearance since competing as Zaire in 1974. Both are given around a 44% qualification probability.

View Group K predictions and fixtures →

Group L

England · Croatia · Panama · Ghana

Group L is the third-hardest group in the draw by the model’s assessment, featuring two genuine contenders. England, managed by Thomas Tuchel, are the group favourites and the model’s fifth-ranked team overall, having sealed qualification with a 5-0 win over Latvia. Led by experienced captain Harry Kane, they will be keen to improve on their quarter-final defeat to France last time out. Croatia are the model’s clearest value signal in this group, rated #10 overall versus the market’s #17 - a seven-place gap supported by their deep World Cup pedigree. The 2018 runners-up and 2022 third-place finishers have repeatedly shown an ability to go deep in tournaments, even when they are not priced among the very top favourites.

The dynamic here creates an interesting betting angle: England and Croatia are both rated as strong favourites to qualify (94.4% and 89.3% respectively), leaving Panama and Ghana fighting for a third-placed finish that could still advance them. Panama qualify for a second World Cup after winning Group A of CONCACAF qualifying. Ghana reach their fifth World Cup but are model-rated 45th, the weakest team in this group by a significant margin.

View Group L predictions and fixtures →

The Hardesr Groups

Two groups stand out as containing the strongest combined top-two teams in the draw.

Group C contains the model's 4th and 9th-ranked teams, Morocco and Brazil, and is statistically the toughest group on paper, with a combined top-two model rank sum of 13, the lowest of any group. Both are expected to qualify, with probabilities of 96.6% and 92.9% respectively, so the elimination drama that traditionally defines a death group is unlikely here. What is at stake is finishing position. The team that finishes second usually inherits a harder R32 opponent, and neither Morocco nor Brazil will want that. The group win % tells the story: Morocco 55.9% vs Brazil 39.4%.

Group I carries the same difficulty rating at the top, with France (#2) and Senegal (#11) both expected to progress. The more interesting subplot is Norway, who the market prices as group runners-up on the strength of Erling Haaland's reputation, but who the model rates third behind Senegal. Norway at 58.2% are above the halfway mark largely because of the third-place route, not because they are expected to finish in the top two. The Senegal vs Norway match may be the most consequential in the group.

At the other end, Group B and Group H appear the most predictable. Spain (97.4%) and Uruguay (87.9%) are both expected to qualify from Group H, and Switzerland (93.9%) and Canada (86.9%) from Group B, leaving Qatar, Bosnia, Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde fighting for third-place berths rather than automatic spots

The Key Group-Stage Betting Angles

A few patterns from the data are worth examining before group fixtures are priced.

• Australia in Group D represent the most significant market undervaluation by volume, model #18, market #33. At 78.5% to qualify from a group containing the USA, Turkey and Paraguay, the model considers them genuine contenders, and their current market price implies they are not. Their qualification odds are likely to be longer than the model supports.

• Algeria in Group J are a similar situation, model #19, market #34. With a qualification probability of 74.9% against Austria's 73.1% in a group that Argentina should win comfortably, the second spot is a two-horse race. Their price relative to Austria is worth examining directly.

• Norway in Group I are the clearest caution. The market has them at #9 overall on the back of Erling Haaland's profile. The model rates them #25, and their 58.2% qualification probability is driven largely by the third-place route rather than a realistic expectation of finishing in the top two behind France. Backing Norway at short outright prices is essentially pricing one player's goal threat into a team with limited World Cup history facing both France and Senegal. The model sees them as more likely than not to progress, but not in the way the market is implying.

The fixtures page links to a dedicated H2H analysis page for every group-stage match, with the model's win/draw/loss prediction and full historical record between the two nations.

Tournament probabilities generated via Monte Carlo simulation of the full 2026 bracket. Qualification % = probability of reaching the Round of 32 (top 2 per group plus best 8 third-placed teams). All figures reflect pre-tournament market data and odds. Structural ratings do not update for squad changes or injuries during the tournament. Not financial or betting advice.

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